ESCENARIOS LOGÍSTICOS

A sabiendas de que no puede existir “una” proyección exacta sobre el futuro, el trabajo ofrece algunas aproximaciones sobre preguntas clave: ¿Seremos capaces de lograr una prosperidad sostenible, o estamos yendo hacia un colapso ambiental? ¿Estará el mundo interconectado o fragmentado? ¿Qué nuevas tecnologías darán forma a nuestra vida cotidiana? Los cinco escenarios, elaborados por reconocidos expertos, parten de la observación de factores clave, como los modelos de negocios y consumo hasta los avances tecnológicos y el cambio climático. Y son complementados por una serie de ensayos sobre temáticas que comprenden desde el futuro de Asia y África y el desenvolvimiento del comercio hasta las necesidades de los consumidores y las estrategias corporativas en un mundo cambiante.

How does one shed light into the black box we call the future? Today’s complex economic and political landscape renders accurate forecasts virtually impossible. In our volatile and connected world, traditional, linear forms of analysis have repeatedly proven wrong. They, alone, simply aren’t enough to help us anticipate and prepare for change.

In the search for robust strategies, we need to widen our perspective, think in alternatives and consider different paths leading into different futures. With this in mind, Deutsche Post DHL, the world’s leading mail and logistics Group, has prepared another issue of our pioneering “Delivering Tomorrow” series: namely, a scenario study on “Logistics 2050.” This latest publication presents five far-ranging, at times even radical visions of life in the year 2050 and their implications for the logistics industry.

It is important to keep in mind, however, that none of these scenarios reflects our definite view of how the future will, in fact, develop. But knowing our limits should not prevent us from stretching our imagination and considering what might transpire.

The scenarios were derived by observing the key influencing forces around us, such as trade and consumption patterns, technological developments or climate change and considering how they drive behaviors and shape values. This exercise helps us plausibly sketch out different shapes that our future could take. By covering a comprehensive spectrum in the “space of future possibilities,” such alternative visions help us to sense a shifting environment much better than any extrapolation of isolated trends could do.

However, assessing the future is a complex and multi-faceted undertaking. That’s why we have invited renowned academics and distinguished experts from a variety of fields and disciplines to provide valuable insights for the scenarios. We have asked them to share their views and analysis of the trends most likely to influence the world and our industry in the years to come, including any relevant economic, societal, political, technological or environmental ramifications. This valuable input formed a sound basis for the creation of our five future scenarios.

Aside from the scenarios, we have also included a variety of thought-provoking essays from distinguished contributors. These external and internal perspectives cover a broad spectrum of themes connected with the future. We hope they will enrich the panorama of future topics contained in this issue and provide additional food for thought.

(De la Presentación, escrita por Frank Appel, CEO de Deutsche Post DHL)

Título: Delivering tomorrow. Logistics 2050. A escenario study.
Autor: Jan Dietrich Müller y Johannes Oppolzer, a cargo de la dirección y la gestión del proyecto.
Editor: Deutsche Post AG.
Idioma: Inglés.
Año: 2012
Páginas: 184.

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